My Confident, Likely Wrong 2019 Oscar Predictions

Sunday night will be an Oscar ceremony unlike any that we have ever seen before. No host, non-actors as presenters, and negative feelings about the Academy’s attempts to shake up the ceremony will make for an interesting telecast. With that in mind, I have little doubt that my 2019 Oscar predictions could be wildly off.

Unlike 2018, where there were few surprises, the 2019 Academy Awards are difficult to predict. Just a few movies received the majority of the nominations. There is a chance that one or two movies sweep the night, leaving multiple films that received three-plus nominations, but take home zero awards.

Here are my picks and predications of the entire Oscar Ballot, with explanations on the major categories:

Actor In A Leading Role

Nominees: Christian Bale – Vice, Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born, Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate, Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody, Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

My Pick: Bradley Cooper was incredible in A Star Is Born, but Christian Bale deserves the nod for carrying Vice. His transformation into a dead-accurate Dick Cheney legitimized the movie in ways that few others could.

Prediction: Christian Bale. Following Gary Oldman’s performance in Darkest Hour, 2019 will mark the second straight year that an actor will win for performing as a historical figure.

Actor In A Supporting Role

Nominees: Mahershala Ali – Green Book, Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman, Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born, Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? Sam Rockwell – Vice

My Pick: Sam Elliott was the perfect complementary piece in A Star Is Born, delivering standout acting despite sharing limited screen time with Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga.

Prediction: Mahershala Ali’s positioning in this nomination is unfair to the other actors. He was by no means a supporting actor in Green Book. He will win the Oscar by virtue of his predominate screen time.

Mahershala Ali In Green Book
Mahershala Ali in Green Book

Actress In A Leading Role

Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio – Roma, Glenn Close – The Wife, Olivia Colman – The Favourite, Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born, Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

My Pick: I am semi-rooting for Melissa McCarthy to rebound from a Razzie to take home an Oscar, but the Best Actress award should go to the underrated Colman. Her turn as Queen Anne was a balance of drama and comedy that anchored The Favourite.

Prediction: Glenn Close has been nominated seven times. A record for living actors without an Oscar win. The incredible actress will finally be able to add an Oscar alongside the Tonys and Emmys on her awards shelf.

Actress In A Supporting Role

Nominees: Amy Adams – Vice, Marina de Tavira – Roma, Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk, Emma Stone – The Favourite, Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

My Pick: In a cast of three co-leads, Emma Stone was engaging and cunning as Abigail Masham. Her character’s will to survive the sociopolitical mess of Queen Anne’s court pushed The Favourite into being one of the best films of 2018.

Prediction: Stone and Weisz being nominated in the same category will split the vote for The Favourite. Six-time nominee Amy Adams will finally win an Oscar for her portrayal of Dick Cheney’s better half.

Original Song

Nominees: “All The Stars” Black Panther, “I’ll Fight” RBG, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” Mary Poppins Returns, “Shallow” A Star Is Born, “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

My Pick: “Shallow.” Not only is it the most popular song of the bunch, but Lady Gaga’s performance of the song was the definitive cinematic moment of 2018.

Prediction: The biggest lock of all the Oscar predictions. Lady Gaga may not win Best Actress, but there is no way she does not take home the prize for Best Original Song.

Cinematography

Nominees: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, Roma, A Star Is Born

My Picks: Director Alfonso Cuaron served as cinematographer for Roma. His keen eye allowed for breathtaking shots from start to finish. Even if viewers did not fall for his slow-moving plot, the artistry and shot selection provided a captivating way to relay the story.

Prediction: Roma will likely win a few awards, but if it is guaranteed to win for anything it will be cinematography. Cuaron’s depiction of the city, the country, and beaches were the best of any film of 2018.

Directing

Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Cold War, The Favourite, Roma, Vice

My Pick: I have not seen Cold War, but Yorgos Lanthimos steered The Favourite into becoming a complete film that BlacKkKlansman, Roma, and Vice were not (he may have opted for the fish-eye lens a little too often).

Prediction: For the same reasons that he will win for best cinematography, Alfonso Cuaron will take home the statute for Roma. His vision created an artistic masterpiece that will be rewarded by the Academy.

Best Picture

Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice

My Pick: For a long time, my heart was going with A Star Is Born. Along with Vice and The Favourite, it is one of three films that contained the best acting of the year. The Favourite, however, was the more complete film. It has the best combination of storytelling, acting, and direction amongst the nominees. The Favouritewas not only one of the most enjoyable movies of 2018, but the best.

Prediction: Roma. In what will be a huge night for Netflix, Cuaron’s accomplishment will trump some of the more popular films in the category. It is hard to believe that the artists who make movies will not be won over by the black and white art house film. Roma will become the first-ever foreign language film to win Best Picture.

Netflix's Roma is the favorite for Best Picture
Netflix’s Roma is the favorite for Best Picture

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born

My Pick: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Prediction: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Original Screenplay

Nominees: The Favourite, First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, Vice

My Pick: The Favourite

Prediction: The Favourite

Animated Feature Film

Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

My Pick: Incredibles 2

Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Costume Design

Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots

My Pick: The Favourite

Prediction: The Favourite

Emma Stone in The Favourite
Emma Stone in The Favourite

Documentary Short Subject

Nominees: Black Sheep, End Game, Lifeboat, A Night at the Garden, Period. End of Sentence.

My Pick: End Game

Prediction: End Game

Original Score

Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns

My Pick: Black Panther

Prediction: Mary Poppins Returns

(L-R) Driver and Washington in BlacKkKlansman
(L-R) Adam Driver and John David Washington in BlacKkKlansman

Film Editing

Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Vice

My Pick: Vice

Prediction: Vice

Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Capernaum, Cold War, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters

My Pick: Roma

Prediction: Roma

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Border, Mary Queen of Scots, Vice

My Pick: Vice

Prediction: Mary Queen of Scots

The fierce women of Wakanda
The fierce women of Wakanda in Black Panther

Production Design

Nominees: The Favourite, Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

My Pick: Black Panther

Prediction: Black Panther

Animated Short Film

Nominees: Animal Behaviour, Bao, Late Afternoon, One Small Step, Weekends

My Pick: Bao

Prediction: One Small Step

Live Action Short Film

Nominees: Detainment, Fauve, Marguerite, Mother Skin

My Pick: Detainment

Prediction: Marguerite

Sound Editing

Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, Roma

My Pick: A Quiet Place

Prediction: Roma

One of many closeups of Ryan Gosling in First Man
Ryan Gosling in First Man

Sound Mixing

Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, A Star Is Born

My Pick: A Star Is Born

Prediction: First Man

Visual Effects

Nominees: Avengers: Infinity War, Christopher Robin, First Man, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story

My Pick: First Man

Prediction: Ready Player One

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