Sunday night will be an Oscar ceremony unlike any that we have ever seen before. No host, non-actors as presenters, and negative feelings about the Academy’s attempts to shake up the ceremony will make for an interesting telecast. With that in mind, I have little doubt that my 2019 Oscar predictions could be wildly off.
Unlike 2018, where there were few surprises, the 2019 Academy Awards are difficult to predict. Just a few movies received the majority of the nominations. There is a chance that one or two movies sweep the night, leaving multiple films that received three-plus nominations, but take home zero awards.
Here are my picks and predications of the entire Oscar Ballot, with explanations on the major categories:
Actor In A Leading Role
Nominees: Christian Bale – Vice, Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born, Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate, Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody, Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
My Pick: Bradley Cooper was incredible in A Star Is Born, but Christian Bale deserves the nod for carrying Vice. His transformation into a dead-accurate Dick Cheney legitimized the movie in ways that few others could.
Prediction: Christian Bale. Following Gary Oldman’s performance in Darkest Hour, 2019 will mark the second straight year that an actor will win for performing as a historical figure.
Actor In A Supporting Role
Nominees: Mahershala Ali – Green Book, Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman, Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born, Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? Sam Rockwell – Vice
My Pick: Sam Elliott was the perfect complementary piece in A Star Is Born, delivering standout acting despite sharing limited screen time with Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga.
Prediction: Mahershala Ali’s positioning in this nomination is unfair to the other actors. He was by no means a supporting actor in Green Book. He will win the Oscar by virtue of his predominate screen time.
Actress In A Leading Role
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio – Roma, Glenn Close – The Wife, Olivia Colman – The Favourite, Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born, Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
My Pick: I am semi-rooting for Melissa McCarthy to rebound from a Razzie to take home an Oscar, but the Best Actress award should go to the underrated Colman. Her turn as Queen Anne was a balance of drama and comedy that anchored The Favourite.
Prediction: Glenn Close has been nominated seven times. A record for living actors without an Oscar win. The incredible actress will finally be able to add an Oscar alongside the Tonys and Emmys on her awards shelf.
Actress In A Supporting Role
Nominees: Amy Adams – Vice, Marina de Tavira – Roma, Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk, Emma Stone – The Favourite, Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
My Pick: In a cast of three co-leads, Emma Stone was engaging and cunning as Abigail Masham. Her character’s will to survive the sociopolitical mess of Queen Anne’s court pushed The Favourite into being one of the best films of 2018.
Prediction: Stone and Weisz being nominated in the same category will split the vote for The Favourite. Six-time nominee Amy Adams will finally win an Oscar for her portrayal of Dick Cheney’s better half.
Original Song
Nominees: “All The Stars” Black Panther, “I’ll Fight” RBG, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” Mary Poppins Returns, “Shallow” A Star Is Born, “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
My Pick: “Shallow.” Not only is it the most popular song of the bunch, but Lady Gaga’s performance of the song was the definitive cinematic moment of 2018.
Prediction: The biggest lock of all the Oscar predictions. Lady Gaga may not win Best Actress, but there is no way she does not take home the prize for Best Original Song.
Cinematography
Nominees: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, Roma, A Star Is Born
My Picks: Director Alfonso Cuaron served as cinematographer for Roma. His keen eye allowed for breathtaking shots from start to finish. Even if viewers did not fall for his slow-moving plot, the artistry and shot selection provided a captivating way to relay the story.
Prediction: Roma will likely win a few awards, but if it is guaranteed to win for anything it will be cinematography. Cuaron’s depiction of the city, the country, and beaches were the best of any film of 2018.
Directing
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Cold War, The Favourite, Roma, Vice
My Pick: I have not seen Cold War, but Yorgos Lanthimos steered The Favourite into becoming a complete film that BlacKkKlansman, Roma, and Vice were not (he may have opted for the fish-eye lens a little too often).
Prediction: For the same reasons that he will win for best cinematography, Alfonso Cuaron will take home the statute for Roma. His vision created an artistic masterpiece that will be rewarded by the Academy.
Best Picture
Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice
My Pick: For a long time, my heart was going with A Star Is Born. Along with Vice and The Favourite, it is one of three films that contained the best acting of the year. The Favourite, however, was the more complete film. It has the best combination of storytelling, acting, and direction amongst the nominees. The Favouritewas not only one of the most enjoyable movies of 2018, but the best.
Prediction: Roma. In what will be a huge night for Netflix, Cuaron’s accomplishment will trump some of the more popular films in the category. It is hard to believe that the artists who make movies will not be won over by the black and white art house film. Roma will become the first-ever foreign language film to win Best Picture.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born
My Pick: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Prediction: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Favourite, First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, Vice
My Pick: The Favourite
Prediction: The Favourite
Animated Feature Film
Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
My Pick: Incredibles 2
Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Costume Design
Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots
My Pick: The Favourite
Prediction: The Favourite
Documentary Short Subject
Nominees: Black Sheep, End Game, Lifeboat, A Night at the Garden, Period. End of Sentence.
My Pick: End Game
Prediction: End Game
Original Score
Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns
My Pick: Black Panther
Prediction: Mary Poppins Returns
Film Editing
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Vice
My Pick: Vice
Prediction: Vice
Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Capernaum, Cold War, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters
My Pick: Roma
Prediction: Roma
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Border, Mary Queen of Scots, Vice
My Pick: Vice
Prediction: Mary Queen of Scots
Production Design
Nominees: The Favourite, Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
My Pick: Black Panther
Prediction: Black Panther
Animated Short Film
Nominees: Animal Behaviour, Bao, Late Afternoon, One Small Step, Weekends
My Pick: Bao
Prediction: One Small Step
Live Action Short Film
Nominees: Detainment, Fauve, Marguerite, Mother Skin
My Pick: Detainment
Prediction: Marguerite
Sound Editing
Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, Roma
My Pick: A Quiet Place
Prediction: Roma
Sound Mixing
Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, A Star Is Born
My Pick: A Star Is Born
Prediction: First Man
Visual Effects
Nominees: Avengers: Infinity War, Christopher Robin, First Man, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story
My Pick: First Man
Prediction: Ready Player One
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